Unleashing the Presidio

America’s greatest city is a mere executive order away.

Matthew Steil · Mar 10, 2025

By far Trump’s most interesting proposition from the campaign trail was that of Freedom Cities. He advocates for chartering 10 new cities on federal land across the American West and giving them unique regulatory freedoms to allow for widespread home ownership and a “quantum leap” in the standard of living. He proposes a streamlined regulatory framework for flying cars and novel policies to reverse a decline in the US birthrate like “baby bonuses”.

This is a spectacular idea, but the truth is that starting new cities is very hard. I can count on one hand the number of successful new cities started since WW2.¹ The “cold start problem” of going from 0 to roughly 10k people, enough that more people would be willing to move there, is brutal.

Most federal land is unsettled for a reason, it usually has little access to freshwater, negligible natural resources, is often mountainous terrain, and is far from major transportation infrastructure. Most proposals suggest unlocking new land outside of medium-sized cities in the west because the cold start problem is so hard to overcome.² These would see some limited success given the unaffordability of housing west of the Rockies relative to the rest of the US, despite the abundant, empty land. But most of these proposals are not particularly inspiring.

Housing is dramatically more expensive in the West, despite far lower population density

However, there is one location for a city that blows all the others out of the water, the Presidio in San Francisco. There is no better placed piece of federal land in the entire country. A Freedom City placed here is as close to a guaranteed success as you could ever get. Others have written about this idea before, but I didn’t find their work very compelling,³ so I’m taking a crack at it.

What is the Presidio?

The Presidio is a former US Army base that was transferred to the Golden Gate Recreation Area in the 90s and now operates as a 1500 acre park nominally under the jurisdiction of the National Park Service (NPS). The Presidio, however, is mostly not a park.

While parts of the Presidio are stunning and look like this:

[Image: Beautiful coastal views of the Presidio]

Much of it is old, low density Army suburbs:

[Image: Low-density suburban housing]

Or a eucalyptus forest planted by the Army as a windbreak

[Image: Eucalyptus forest]

Or unused scrubland

[Image: Scrubland]

I’d estimate about 1/3 of it is something worthy of being called a National Park, while the other 2/3 is 1000 acres of largely unused Army-terraformed land in the most expensive real estate market on earth.

The Demand

San Francisco is notorious for having the worst housing crisis in the country.

Despite housing prices being at a near all time high, SF is permitting fewer structures than they did in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis and the 90s, when houses were 1/10th the cost they are today.

The American Enterprise Institute reports that the land value in this northern part of SF ranges from $10-30 million per acre in 2019, which is among the highest in the entire world. This means that the Presidio is sitting on some $50 billion⁴ of unused land value, not including the massive additional value created by actually building on it.

The land in this area of San Francisco near the Presidio, despite the high cost of land, looks like this:

This land is worth at least $10m per acre

Undeniably beautiful homes and a lovely place to live, but this doesn’t make sense given the massive demand for housing

This is not natural. San Francisco has some of the strictest zoning ordinances, building codes, and environmental regulations in the world. In practice, this means that the vast majority of the city is limited to no more than 3 floors of livable area, and any proposal for development is nearly guaranteed to be held up in court for years before it obtains a permit, if it ever does.

San Francisco is a relatively dense city compared to the rest of the US, second only to NYC. Despite this, it still is far lower density than other global cities with similar land values. Given a free market in housing, the high land values of San Francisco dictate that the city should look at the very least like Tokyo or Paris, if not Manhattan or Hong Kong levels of density. Instead, SF is about 1/2, 1/3, 1/4, and 1/6⁵ of those cities’ population densities respectively. (Land value, housing prices, and density relationships tangent)⁶

The Bay Area is, from a certain perspective, the most important city in the country. In the last half century, no other place on earth has so consistently produced important, novel technologies. There is enormous pent up demand to live in this beautiful, dynamic place building what may prove to be the most important technologies of the next half century. San Francisco is the font of America’s technological advantage over the rest of the world, and our best and brightest increasingly cannot afford to move there. If there was any opportunity to add new housing supply, the resultant value creation would be titanic.

The Supply

The Presidio is an even more egregious use of land than the rest of San Francisco from a free market perspective.

That’s the Golden Gate Bridge! This land is worth $30 million per acre! This makes no sense.

The Presidio, if freed from the chains that keep it underdeveloped, presents the largest possible single influx of supply into the SF market.

1500 acres doesn’t seem like much, but I found some other 1500 acre regions around the world for some examples of what can be done here. I highly recommend you check out the Google Earth link and look around these areas. If you’ve been to any of these places, you’ll realize the amount of stuff you can pack in 1500 acres is astronomical.

• Either Lower or Midtown Manhattan
• The entirety of Venice, once the most powerful state in the Mediterranean.
• Nice or 2x Monaco (an entire country)
• Hong Kong Island

1500 acres at Hong Kong urban densities (~110k per sq mile) could hold about 250k people. The concrete jungle of Hong Kong, however, is what keeps NIMBYs up at night. Paris is a much more palatable proposition, and is about half the density (~50k / sq mile) of Hong Kong. At these densities, the Presidio would house about 120k people.

The city of SF has only 800k people in it, a number relatively unchanged from its historical population of 700k in the 1940s. Adding housing supply for 120k new residents would significantly lower the city’s housing costs.

Finding residents for the newly built Freedom City will be no trouble. This is prime land within view of the Golden Gate and has a beautiful climate. There is no better piece of federal land in the whole country to live in.

While most cities need to establish an industrial base, which does not lend itself well to high densities and walkable cities, the Presidio gets to cheat a bit. The anchor industry of San Francisco is overwhelmingly tech, something that needs basically no physical infrastructure to co-locate with. This is a game of adding value with pure information. The only agglomeration effects, and these are very strong, are with other smart people in the same area. This is why demand to live in New York (finance) and SF (tech) is so high and why these cities’ prices and densities are so high compared to the rest of the US. The Presidio can be converted to nothing but housing and the businesses necessary to support the residents.

So why does the Presidio have so much wasted land anyway? It has everything to do with the entity that manages it.

The Opportunity

The Presidio Trust

The inland 80% of lands in the Presidio is under the complete control of the Presidio Trust, a unique federal government owned corporation.⁷ Unlike other Freedom City proposals, there is already an institution authorized by Congress through which this city can be built. This organization’s closest parallel is probably the Tennessee Valley Authority, which had wide ranging powers during the New Deal era.

Most of the natural areas worth preserving as a National Park are in Area A, which the Trust does not have control over

The 1996 Presidio Trust Act is the charter of this organization. As far as I can tell, this single act of Congress is the source of all of the organization’s authority, which is entirely vested in the Board of Directors. This is a 7 member board made up of:

(A) The Secretary of the Interior or the Secretary’s designee.

(B) 6 individuals, who are not employees of the Federal Government, appointed by the President, who shall possess extensive knowledge and experience in one or more of the fields of city planning, finance, real estate development, and resource conservation. At least one of these individuals shall be a veteran of the Armed Services. At least 3 of these individuals shall reside in the San Francisco Bay Area.

103.c.1

The President is solely in charge of the membership of this board either directly or through his cabinet appointments.

Members of the Board appointed under paragraph (1)(B) shall each serve for a term of 4 years, except that of the members first appointed, 3 shall serve for a term of 2 years. Any vacancy in the Board shall be filled in the same manner in which the original appointment was made, and any member appointed to fill a vacancy shall serve for the remainder of the term for which his or her predecessor was appointed. No appointed member may serve more than 8 years in consecutive terms, except that upon the expiration of his or her term, an appointed member may continue to serve until his or her successor has been appointed

103.c.2

It is unclear whether the President has the authority to remove members before their terms are officially expired. I’d argue it follows a similar logic to the President’s cabinet or any other executive appointee; the President that holds the power to appoint them, he has the power to remove them as well. If the President doesn’t have the power to remove them, the charter specifies no alternative authority that could remove them in the face of corruption or a similar just cause.

Even if Board members cannot be easily removed, 3 of the 6 current board members’ terms expire in June 2025 and their replacements will have to be appointed by the President anyway. With the Secretary of the Interior’s appointment, this means that the current administration will have a 4/7 majority on the board.

Four members of the Board shall constitute a quorum for the conduct of business by the Board

103.c.3

So this is effectively complete control of the board.

The entirety of the institution that is the Trust is under the control of the Board, and can be restructured as needed (103.c.7)

All bylaws, rules, and regulations enacted since the original act can be repealed and amended by the Board (104.j)

Some other interesting clauses:

NECESSARY POWERS.—The Trust shall have all necessary and proper powers for the exercise of the authorities vested in it.

103.c.8

You love to see the Elastic Clause in a government corporation. This gives us quite a bit of freedom.

TAXES.—The Trust and all properties administered by the Trust and all interest created under leases, concessions, permits and other agreements associated with the properties shall be exempt from all taxes and special assessments of every kind by the State of California, and its political subdivisions, including the City and County of San Francisco.

103.c.9

This is insane, California and San Francisco in particular is notorious for the high taxes they levy on corporations and on buildings. Being able to bring certain functions in-house to exempt them from corporate taxes and all buildings being owned by the Trust significantly reduces the burden on those who want to do business in the SF area. This clause alone is probably sufficient to guarantee success.

The Trust shall bring all properties under its administrative jurisdiction into compliance with Federal building codes and regulations appropriate to use and occupancy

104.m

I believe this, in combination with other clauses, means that the Presidio buildings are immune to San Francisco and California specific zoning laws, instead being subject to federal codes. The federal government generally abides by the International Building Code (IBC), which is far more free than the SF zoning restrictions

With these unique abilities, what is the Trust actually directed to do?

(5) as part of the Golden Gate National Recreation Area, the Presidio’s significant natural, historic, scenic, cultural, and recreational resources must be managed in a manner which is consistent with sound principles of land use planning and management, and which protects the Presidio from development and uses which would destroy the scenic beauty and historic and natural character of the area and cultural and recreational resources;

(6) removal and/or replacement of some structures within the Presidio must be considered as a management option in the administration of the Presidio; and

(7) the Presidio will be managed through an innovative public/private partnership that minimizes cost to the United States Treasury and makes efficient use of private sector resources.

101

The Trust shall manage the leasing, maintenance, rehabilitation, repair and improvement of property within the Presidio under its administrative jurisdiction using the authorities provided in this section

104.a

The Trust shall develop a comprehensive program for management of those lands and facilities within the Presidio which are transferred to the administrative jurisdiction of the Trust. Such program shall be designed to reduce expenditures by the National Park Service and increase revenues to the Federal Government to the maximum extent possible. In carrying out this program, the Trust shall be treated as a successor in interest to the National Park Service with respect to compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act [NEPA] and other environmental compliance statutes. Such program shall consist of—

(1) demolition of structures which in the opinion of the Trust, cannot be cost-effectively rehabilitated, and which are identified in the management plan for demolition,

(2) evaluation for possible demolition or replacement those buildings identified as categories 2 through 5 in the Presidio of San Francisco Historic Landmark District Historic American Buildings Survey Report, dated 1985,

(3) new construction limited to replacement of existing structures of similar size in existing areas of development

104.c

It requires a generous interpretation of the original charter to allow the establishment of a high density Freedom City in this area. Many of these clauses seem pretty anti-development in spirit. The Lucasfilm building is the largest new urban development project in the Presidio. This is a good start, it is a large 4 story building, more similar than not to Parisian buildings. But expanding beyond replacing existing neighborhoods in the Presidio is difficult to argue.

Being subject to NEPA would ordinarily be a huge problem for development, but the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) is reevaluating the rules currently in place, and given recent Supreme Court decisions, it appears that the interpretation will be substantially weakened.

What does the business of the Presidio look like?

The Trust is intended to be financially self-sufficient and not cost the federal government anything. It has done this since 2006, mainly by leasing out its buildings to about 5k residents and to numerous high profile commercial tenants like Lucasfilm. There is a trampoline park, a brewery, some venture capital firms, a book publisher, the Walt Disney family museum, and a few schools. An oddly urban assortment for a “National Park”. It makes about $230 million per year from this business, in roughly equal parts from residential and commercial. They are able to take out up to $250 million in debt from the US Treasury for capital improvements. (2024 Financial Report) This situation is odd to say the least, there is nothing else in the NPS that is funded in this way. From a business standpoint, the transition from what the current Trust is doing to what a Freedom City would be doing is merely a level up in ambition, not an entirely new directive.

There is no way for the Trust to transfer ownership of any of its assets, so this requires a nontraditional approach to development.

The Trust may not dispose of or convey fee title to any real property transferred to it under this title

104.b

We’ll need to figure out a mechanism by which we can get outside funding for the construction spree we’re planning. The easiest way to do this is something similar to what Singapore does, taking in financing and selling transferable 99-year leases as a proxy for ownership.

To augment or encourage the use of non-Federal funds to finance capital improvements on Presidio properties transferred to its jurisdiction, the Trust, in addition to its other authorities, shall have the following authorities

104.d.1

While the particular mechanism this clause is referring to has expired, it is obviously in the spirit of the original Act to tap private sector funding.

LEASING.—In managing and leasing the properties transferred to it, the Trust shall consider the extent to which prospective tenants contribute to the implementation of the general objectives of the General Management Plan for the Presidio and to the reduction of cost to the Federal Government. The Trust shall give priority to the following categories of tenants: Tenants that enhance the financial viability of the Presidio and tenants that facilitate the cost-effective preservation of historic buildings through their reuse of such buildings.

104.n

This gives the Trust free reign to determine who the tenants are, a useful power. “Enhancing the financial viability” is a very defensible phrase.

Within the existing goals of the Trust Act, I think it can reasonably by argued that all neighborhoods and less valuable undeveloped land can be converted to urban land uses in the spirit of the original buildings. Upgrading the density of the less important areas better allows the preservation of the most beautiful areas. Taking the Lucasfilm buildings as an anchor point, I think a Parisian style urban fabric can be justified for a little over half of the Presidio. Of course, much of the natural area should be left open. The greatest cities on Earth have wonderful parks and public spaces; with the natural endowment of this land, the Presidio will be no different.

By generously interpreting the original goals of the Act, something even more spectacular than this can be achieved. The Presidio can become the greatest city in America, a literal City on a Hill, a shining beacon of American Exceptionalism.

The Vision

We’ve established that the President of the United States has authority over the appointments of the Board of the Presidio Trust, a federal government owned corporation with complete control over the interior 80% of the Presidio. There exists today a unique opportunity that may only exist for a short time; the appointments of 3 of the Board members is in June 2025.

The current administration has stated that they are interested in establishing Freedom Cities and similar projects aligned with cutting through regulatory morass and inefficient uses of government resources. The Presidio presents the most compelling option to achieve all of these goals in a single, dramatic action. Replace 4/7 or 7/7 members of the Trust Board with individuals value-aligned with the mission of building the greatest city in America right in San Francisco’s backyard. Then get building as fast as possible so that the Presidio is as close to its final form as possible when it gets put under the scrutiny of those who might want to shut down the project.

The Presidio provides an opportunity to showcase the playbook by which we fix the problems plaguing American cities. The Presidio will have abundant housing and safe streets, with zero tolerance for crime, homelessness, and dangerous drug use. It will exemplify a new age of American urbanism and architecture, building lovely places for people while integrating new transportation technologies such as drone delivery, self driving cars, and soon flying cars. Families will feel comfortable raising their kids here and letting them run around freely.⁸

Standing in visceral contrast to the Presidio will be San Francisco, maybe the worst managed, expensive, misanthropic, and unsafe major city in the country. The juxtaposition between these two futures for American cities will highlight the merits of the Presidio’s approach for the whole country to see. No longer will we have to clean up our cities when foreign autocrats come to visit. The American people will hold their own cities to the high standard set by the Presidio and spark a wave of positive change across the country.

There are a number of options going forward depending on the level of ambition of those involved

Presidio v1: Replace the existing ugly buildings with beautiful buildings. My dream is a European walkable city form factor and American Art Deco - Atompunk architectural style. This is the practical prototype of the American City of the Future. Small scale, but doubtless defensible within the bounds of the Trust Act. Many would object that we (presumably greedy developers) are destroying their National Park for a quick buck. It couldn’t be farther from the truth. We are hardly paving over invaluable natural land for just another parking lot. We are pioneering a new type of American urbanism on an underutilized old army base. You have to replace something good with something even better. The land ownership structure incentivizes the Trust to build high-quality, long-lasting buildings, not just a quick, poorly built regulation arbitrage targeting a gap in the most expensive real estate market on Earth.

It should be easy enough to take the best towns in Europe and bring them here.

Presidio v2: Convert the least valuable scrubland, forest, and golf course to a cohesive part of this new city. Similar to the v1 plan, but a single integrated urban fabric, instead of patchwork replacements of neighborhoods. Some will be upset about the Trust breaking its “absolutely don’t change anything” stance, but this is still possible within the initial bounds of the Trust, if the most beautiful natural areas are preserved, which they should be.

We can literally build this. We know how to do it, there is nothing stopping us.

(The above are defensibly following the rules of the original charter)

Presidio v3: All 80% of Presidio land under the control of the Presidio Trust is now part of the new city. This will add more housing in 5 years than the City and County of San Francisco has built in the last half century. The mandate to preserve historic buildings is broken and the army forest that is not used for city parks is upgraded and replaced by the new city. Only the coastal areas remain undisturbed parks.

At Parisian densities, the Presidio can hold 100k+ people

Presidio v4: Gloves come off, let the price of land and the free market determine the height of new buildings. As the only land in the Bay without building restrictions, hundreds of billions of dollars will flow into construction. It will be trivially easy to raise an arbitrary amount of capital. The city will most likely look like Manhattan or Hong Kong within a decade, starkly standing out from the rest of the Bay. This area will be dense enough to shift the center of gravity in SF to itself and become the new central business district. This is the minimum option that would actually lower housing prices in the Bay.

At Hong Kong densities, the Presidio can hold 250k+ people

(The above are technically within the allowed powers of the original Trust, but far exceed the original goal of preservation as a park)

Presidio v5: Move beyond the allowed powers of the Trust and involve the Department of the Interior to convert the Marin Headlands of Golden Gate National Recreation Area into a free market housing zone, creating twin forests of skyscrapers on either side⁹ of the Golden Gate with the additional 8000 acres. Also put a new Statue of Progress on Alcatraz as a West Coast twin to the Statue of Liberty. The housing crisis in the Bay is alleviated.

The twin cities of the Golden Gate can have a population upwards of 1m with the Marin Headlands unlocked

Presidio v6: Assume federal control of the San Francisco Bay and fill in all land shallower than 5 meters, doubling the livable size of the Bay Area and ushering in a new age of prosperity in Gran Francisco, the city that unifies all 101 municipalities in the Bay. With unrestricted housing policy at Paris densities, the population of the Bay climbs to 30 million, eclipsing New York as the largest city in America and taking its place among the world’s largest.

Gran Francisco would be by far the largest city in the Western Hemisphere, with the highest standards of living on earth, a GDP per capita in the hundred thousands, and an economic output rivaling entire continents. It is indisputably the city where the future is being built; every talented engineer on Earth wants to move here.

Any of these 6 visions of the future are a dramatic improvement over what already exists. Every one of them is possible within the next decade or two if the proper political willpower can be marshaled. This opportunity is real, it exists right now, and only for a short time. The future deserves to be exciting. We have to replace that which is good with that which is better. That starts with building Presidio City.

Footnotes